A million Indian and Pakistani troops face-off along the Line of Control. A suicide attack in Kashmir on May 14 leaves thirty-four people, mostly women and children, dead. The Indian army, which has borne the brunt of casualties in Kashmir, is now eager to "teach Pakistan a lesson." Pakistan has reportedly deployed the nuclear-capable, 750 km-range Shaheen missile along the border. This is South Asia heading toward limited war.
When even the New York Times gets it wrong, you know there is deep confusion about the arms control treaty Presidents Bush and Putin will sign this week--inspired in part by the administration's hyperbole. Contrary to the Times reporting on Monday, the new treaty will not "winnow their nuclear arsenals by two-thirds in the next decade" or "eliminate thousands of nuclear weapons," as an op-ed mistakenly said. Ten years from now, when the treaty concludes and expires, the United States and Russia will each have over ten thousand nuclear weapons-exactly what they have today.
The United States and Russia are finalizing a strategic arms reduction agreement in time for the summit meeting of Presidents Bush and Putin in Russia on May 23-24. The agreement is a welcome change from the Administration's previous insistence on unbridled unilateral flexibility in strategic policy.
Listen to audio from the event.
Special advance screening presented by the Carnegie Endowment and Paramount Pictures.
New reports indicate that Russia could be preparing to resume nuclear testing at its Novaya Zemlya test range. New nuclear tests by Russia, or any other state, would be a very negative international development. Russia should quickly and publicly explain its activities to allay concerns about its intentions. Some administration officials, however, are using the intelligence claims as a justification for why the United States needs to resume nuclear weapons development. This reading is unfortunate, and fails to accept the possibility that Russian moves could be a response to U.S. interest in, and discussion of the development of new nuclear weapons.
Special book luncheon
A senior administration official has indicated that Iran is working on a new version of its Shahab missile that could potentially reach European allies such as Italy, Greece, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Followin this, the U.S. indicated it would soon announce sanctions against entities that are contributing to Iran’s ballistic missile and WMD programs. Though continued Iranian progress in missile technology is a cause for concern, there is little evidence of an imminent upgrade in the Shahab series.
Event with US Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham and Russian Minister of Atomic Energy Alexander Rumyantsev, co-sponsored by the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Audio is available.
Israeli-Palestinian tensions and continued talk of military action against Iraq has raised fears of a wider war in the region. For background on the possible use of weapons of mass destruction in future conflicts, we provide summaries on the missile capabilities of countries in the Middle East adapted from a forthcoming Carnegie study.
The Bush administration has abruptly frozen future work to secure Russian nuclear weapons and dismantle nuclear delivery systems, and may refuse to certify that Russia is in compliance with its current arms control obligations. If the administration, in fact, chooses not to certify Russian arms control compliance, the freeze could become permanent. These moves are already casting a negative cloud on the upcoming summit between Presidents Bush and Putin.
Raging violence between Israelis and Palestinians has raised fears of a wider war in the region. For background on the possible use of weapons of mass destruction in future conflicts, this analysis summarizes on the chemical and biological weapon capabilities of countries in the Middle East.
The raging violence between Israelis and Palestinians has raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East. For background on the possible use of weapons of mass destruction in future conflicts, we provide summaries on the nuclear weapon capabilities of Israel, Iraq and Iran from a forthcoming Carnegie study, Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction (June 2002). Later analyses will assess regional chemical and biological weapons capabilities and missile arsenals.
This new report prepared by Rodney Jones and recently released by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, analyzes India's and Pakistan's nuclear force capabilities, policies, and postures, and their implications for military instability and conflict.
Bush administration officials say that because the United States and Russia are no longer enemies, the size of the Russian nuclear arsenal no longer matters. But that sentiment ignores the main risk from Russia: not from a deliberate nuclear attack but the possible leakage of nuclear weapons or material to would-be nuclear states or terrorist groups.
A continuation of the current White House policy risks a resumption of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, but this time with a North Korea that may have the capability to carry war to U.S. territory.
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