Press Conference on Capitol Hill with Representative Ellen Tauscher (D-CA)
Presentation by Milton Leitenberg, Senior Fellow, Center for International and Security Studies
China warned the U.S. on April 25 that planned arms sales to Taiwan could damage relations, specifically in the area of cooperative nonproliferation efforts. Once considered the primary source of missile and WMD proliferation, in recent years China has scaled back these activites.
On April 11, the Carnegie Moscow Center hosted the Russian premiere of the movie "Thirteen Days." As part of a distinguished panel that discussed the Cuban Missile Crisis following the screening, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamera highlighted four of the miscalculations made by both sides during the crisis that could have led to nuclear war.
President Bush and his new foreign policy team have announced that they plan to undertake a full review of all aspects of American policy toward Russia on matters like economic assistance, NATO expansion and missile defense. There must be a new agenda, we are told, because the old approach of cooperation and engagement pursued by the Clinton administration has been ineffective.
Presentations by Jan Lodal and Jeremy Stone
The MTCR is based on a policy, not a treaty. It focuses on ballistic and cruise missiles capable of delivering a 500 kilogram payload to a range of 300 kilometers. Any rockets or unmanned air vehicles with this capability, including space launch vehicles (SLV's), which are "peaceful" versions of long-range missiles, are subject to a strong presumption of export denial.
Proposed cuts to a range of U.S. non-proliferation programs in the budget submitted by the White House on April 9 could seriously undermine U.S. efforts to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
Excerpts from Carnegie Senior Associate Mike McFaul's opinion-editorial piece in the April 11 New York Times. For the full text of the article on the New York Times web site, click here.
The Global Control System (GSK, from the Russian translation) demonstrated itself as a useful mechanism permitting involvement of Missile Technology Control Regime non member states in international discussions on missile proliferation and how to better resist it. Need for such a forum will continue in the future, and Moscow conferences have a reasonable chance of being supported to continue.
Proliferation Roundtable
In a surprise shakeup with some potentially significant implications for US-Russian relations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has replaced his Ministers of Defense and Atomic Energy. The moves, coming as part of a broader government shake-up, is seen as a move by Putin to further consolidate his power by replacing holdovers from the previous Yeltsin administration with people directly loyal to him.
European mediators are filling the vacuum left by President George Bush's decision not to pursue talks with North Korea. Appalled at the cold shoulder Bush gave South Korea's president and democracy hero, Kim Dae Jung, European Union President Goran Persson will soon go to the region to expedite ways to defuse the nuclear missile threat posed by the North. This is a new role for the Europeans, and one long overdue.
Bush administration plans to cut funding for most nonproliferation assistance projects in Russia have triggered concerns among members of Congress and proliferation experts. The cuts could cripple efforts to secure nuclear weapons materials and reduce the risk of nuclear, chemical and biological weapon and ballistic missile proliferation from Russia.
Proliferation Roundtable with Alex Flint, Laura Holgate, John Tuck and Sandy Spector
China's announced 18 percent increase in military spending, US consideration of Aegis ship sales to Taiwan and the push for a national missile defense system give new importance to a prescient analysis by Ambassador Chas Freeman at Carnegie in 1999. We present his prescription from that meeting for avoiding heightened tensions with China. Freeman discusses his debate with Chinese officials that gives us both the origin and the true meaning of the famous "Los Angeles" quote.
Briefing by Uzi Rubin, Senior Director for Proliferation and Technology, Israel's National Security Council
U.S.-South Korean relations will be put to the test this week as South Korean President Kim Dae-Jung visits Washington. Kim’s recent summit with Russian President Putin produced a joint statement effectively opposing U.S. plans to deploy national missile defenses, complicating President Bush’s first foray into East Asian security affairs.
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