Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Talks With North Korea

The announcement that the United States, North Korea and China will hold talks next week in Beijing over North Korea's nuclear program is a welcome development and an apparent victory for the Bush administration's decision to oppose direct, one-on-one talks with Pyongyang.

Summary of Syria’s Chemical and Biological Weapons Programs

Syria is one of several states in the Middle East, including Israel and Egypt, that has pursued a chemical and biological weapons program. Syria's program began in 1973 with the transfer of chemical weapons equipment and supplies from Egypt shortly before the October 1973 War with Israel. We provide a brief assessment of Syria's chemical and biological weapons capabilities, followed by an overview of the weapons programs of other relevant countries drawn from Deadly Arsenals.

Asian Views of the North Korea Crisis and U.S. Policy

Forum examined views and strategies of five concerned powers - South Korea, Japan, Russia, China and the United States-towards resolving the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

President Bush on Iraq's Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Weapons Arsenals

President Bush described the dangers from Iraq's weapons of mass destruction that he hoped to eliminate in his State of the Union speech on January 28, 3003. "The United Nations concluded in 1999 that Saddam Hussein had biological weapons sufficient to produce over 25,000 liters of anthrax -- enough doses to kill several million people. He hasn't accounted for that material. He's given no evidence that he has destroyed it.The United Nations concluded that Saddam Hussein had materials sufficient to produce more than 38,000 liters of botulinum toxin -- enough to subject millions of people to death by respiratory failure. He hadn't accounted for that material. He's given no evidence that he has destroyed it."

How Will the Iraq War Change Global Nonproliferation Strategies?

The Roots of Terrorism

The Bush administration believes that a regime change in Iraq will revive the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In his speech at the American Enterprise Institute, George W. Bush argued that toppling Saddam Hussein will deprive Palestinian suicide bombers of a wealthy patron, which will alleviate the threat of terrorism in Israel and allow for the rise of a democratic Palestinian government that strives for peace. The president promises "to seize every opportunity in pursuit of peace. And the end of the present regime in Iraq would create such an opportunity." He would be wise to start now.

Corporate Nation Building

The administration seems to be establishing a new corporate model for post-war reconstruction efforts. There has been some talk about involving the United Nations in these efforts. But the administration is putting their money in a very different place. "At least to start, we intend to handle the big jobs ourselves," a senior administration official said. They have put almost all the emphasis and funding for humanitarian relief and reconstruction efforts in corporate hands: $1.5 billion in contracts to private companies, while only $50 million has gone to a small number of non-governmental groups. Officials intend to use Iraq's oil revenues and funds seized from Saddam Hussien's bank accounts to fund these corporate contracts.

Origins of Regime Change in Iraq

Long before September 11, before the first inspections in Iraq had started, a small group of influential officials and experts in Washington were calling for regime change in Iraq. Some never wanted to end the 1991 war. Many are now administration officials. Their organization, dedication and brilliance offer much to admire, even for those who disagree with the policies they advocate.

The View From Turkey

The following essay was provided by Mustafa Kibaroglu. Dr. Kibaroglu is assistant professor in the Department of International Relations at Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey. President George Bush's plans to achieve regime change in Iraq were vastly complicated by Turkey's decision not to allow U.S. troops to stage operations in country. Although U.S. statesmen claim the decision is not important, Turkey's position has serious implications for the potential success of the war plans of the "coalition of the willing."

The Cook Report: An Eloquent Protest Against the War

"Iraq probably has no weapons of mass destruction in the commonly understood sense of the term-namely a credible device capable of being delivered against a strategic city target," said Robin Cook, former UK foreign secretary and leader of the House of Commons as he resigned his post in protest against the Iraq War. "It probably still has biological toxins and battlefield chemical munitions, but it has had them since the 1980s when US companies sold Saddam anthrax agents and the then British Government approved chemical and munitions factories. Why is it now so urgent that we should take military action to disarm a military capacity that has been there for 20 years, and which we helped to create? Why is it necessary to resort to war this week, while Saddam's ambition to complete his weapons programme is blocked by the presence of UN inspectors?"

Bush's Nuclear Revolution

The Bush administration's new "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)," announced in December, is wise in some places, in need of small fixes in other places, and dangerously radical in still others.

Iran's Uranium-Enrichment Program in Natanz

Multiple sources now confirm that Iran has an operational uranium-enrichment facility located in Nantanz, 200 miles south of Tehran. In late February, Mohammed ElBaradei, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency visited this facility, which will be placed under international inspection. The plant is currently equipped with 160 new gas centrifuges, with parts reportedly in place for an additional 1,000 machines. Iran has plans to eventually operate the plant with a total of 5,000 centrifuges. According to the Washington Post, when this plant is completed in 2005, Iran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for several bombs a year.

Prospects for India-Russia Security Relations

A seminar by Dipankar Banerjee, Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace, and Dmitri Trenin, Deputy Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Hidden Motives on Russia

Congressman Duncan Hunter writes in the March 4, 2003 Washington Post that U.S. non-proliferation efforts in Russia need to be refocused and to come under better oversight to ensure money is not wasted in the future. For once on the issue of cooperative threat reduction, Congressman Hunter is right. Despite his record of undermining U.S. efforts to prevent the proliferation of Russian weapons to other countries and terrorists, Congressman Hunter points out correctly that greater congressional and executive oversight and attention to U.S. threat reduction efforts are needed.

Not engaging N. Korea is like handing it a loaded weapon

The New American Colonialism

There will certainly be a regional reaction to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, but it will not be a wave of democratic revolutions. We just have to look back at the previous efforts of empires with the best of intentions -- the British, the French, and the Germans -- to understand what happens when Western nations try to bring "civilization" to the Middle East on the points of their bayonets.

Why Pollack is Wrong: We Have Contained Saddam

Ken Pollack is a gifted analyst. But in his lengthy February 21 New York Times op-ed, he assembles a house of cards to prove that (1) Saddam Hussein may soon get a nuclear bomb, and (2) if he does, we cannot deter him from using it. For Pollack to be correct, all of Saddam's efforts to build a bomb must work perfectly and all of our efforts to thwart him short of war must fail miserably. Here are six of his key errors:

The Arab World is Seething

Arab governments and citizens are incensed at the policies of the United States toward the Middle East. The anger cuts across age, economic, social and intellectual spectrums, and it has reached alarming levels. Recent visits to the region by Carnegie experts confirm that there is little appreciation for the Bush Administration's position among the people of the Middle East.

Beyond Arms Control: How to Deal with Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear arms control is often considered not worth the effort now that the Cold War is over. But the nuclear threat is anything but over. Several thousand strategic nuclear weapons remain on hair-trigger alert in U.S. and Russian arsenals; many more are insecurely stored. Moscow and Washington must pursue innovative reduction efforts.

Tenet Offers New Theory on Proliferation Threats

CIA Director George Tenet offered a dramatic redefinition of the proliferation problem in testimony to Congress February 11, 2003. Over the past two years, administration officials have discarded major elements of the global non-proliferation regime, rejected negotiated solutions and engagement and ignored major developments in North Korea and Iran. Now as former critical situations turn into crises, Tenet warns that the non-proliferation regime is in trouble. Here is Tenet's new explanation of why.