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When even the New York Times gets it wrong, you know there is deep confusion about the arms control treaty Presidents Bush and Putin will sign this week--inspired in part by the administration's hyperbole. Contrary to the Times reporting on Monday, the new treaty will not "winnow their nuclear arsenals by two-thirds in the next decade" or "eliminate thousands of nuclear weapons," as an op-ed mistakenly said. Ten years from now, when the treaty concludes and expires, the United States and Russia will each have over ten thousand nuclear weapons-exactly what they have today.
The United States and Russia are finalizing a strategic arms reduction agreement in time for the summit meeting of Presidents Bush and Putin in Russia on May 23-24. The agreement is a welcome change from the Administration's previous insistence on unbridled unilateral flexibility in strategic policy.
Listen to audio from the event.
Special advance screening presented by the Carnegie Endowment and Paramount Pictures.
New reports indicate that Russia could be preparing to resume nuclear testing at its Novaya Zemlya test range. New nuclear tests by Russia, or any other state, would be a very negative international development. Russia should quickly and publicly explain its activities to allay concerns about its intentions. Some administration officials, however, are using the intelligence claims as a justification for why the United States needs to resume nuclear weapons development. This reading is unfortunate, and fails to accept the possibility that Russian moves could be a response to U.S. interest in, and discussion of the development of new nuclear weapons.
Special book luncheon
A senior administration official has indicated that Iran is working on a new version of its Shahab missile that could potentially reach European allies such as Italy, Greece, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. Followin this, the U.S. indicated it would soon announce sanctions against entities that are contributing to Iran’s ballistic missile and WMD programs. Though continued Iranian progress in missile technology is a cause for concern, there is little evidence of an imminent upgrade in the Shahab series.
Event with US Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham and Russian Minister of Atomic Energy Alexander Rumyantsev, co-sponsored by the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Audio is available.
Israeli-Palestinian tensions and continued talk of military action against Iraq has raised fears of a wider war in the region. For background on the possible use of weapons of mass destruction in future conflicts, we provide summaries on the missile capabilities of countries in the Middle East adapted from a forthcoming Carnegie study.
The Bush administration has abruptly frozen future work to secure Russian nuclear weapons and dismantle nuclear delivery systems, and may refuse to certify that Russia is in compliance with its current arms control obligations. If the administration, in fact, chooses not to certify Russian arms control compliance, the freeze could become permanent. These moves are already casting a negative cloud on the upcoming summit between Presidents Bush and Putin.
Raging violence between Israelis and Palestinians has raised fears of a wider war in the region. For background on the possible use of weapons of mass destruction in future conflicts, this analysis summarizes on the chemical and biological weapon capabilities of countries in the Middle East.
The raging violence between Israelis and Palestinians has raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East. For background on the possible use of weapons of mass destruction in future conflicts, we provide summaries on the nuclear weapon capabilities of Israel, Iraq and Iran from a forthcoming Carnegie study, Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction (June 2002). Later analyses will assess regional chemical and biological weapons capabilities and missile arsenals.
This new report prepared by Rodney Jones and recently released by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, analyzes India's and Pakistan's nuclear force capabilities, policies, and postures, and their implications for military instability and conflict.
Bush administration officials say that because the United States and Russia are no longer enemies, the size of the Russian nuclear arsenal no longer matters. But that sentiment ignores the main risk from Russia: not from a deliberate nuclear attack but the possible leakage of nuclear weapons or material to would-be nuclear states or terrorist groups.
A continuation of the current White House policy risks a resumption of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula, but this time with a North Korea that may have the capability to carry war to U.S. territory.
In a major, potentially disastrous development, the Bush Administration - according to news reports - intends to stop certifying to Congress that North Korea is in compliance with the agreement reached in 1994, known formally as the Agreed Framework. While the administration intends to continue its implementation of the pact, this failure to certify North Korea's compliance will only increase outside criticism of the Agreed Framework and call its successful and full implementation into doubt.
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Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Fiona Cunningham is a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in 2020-21.
Dalton is the co-director and a senior fellow of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order.
Rose Gottemoeller is a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. She also serves as the Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.
Hibbs is a Germany-based nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. His areas of expertise are nuclear verification and safeguards, multilateral nuclear trade policy, international nuclear cooperation, and nonproliferation arrangements.
Kassenova is a nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.
Ulrich Kühn is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the head of the arms control and emerging technologies program at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.
Jamie Kwong is a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Levite was the principal deputy director general for policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission from 2002 to 2007.
Thomas MacDonald is a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Perkovich works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues; cyberconflict; and new approaches to international public-private management of strategic technologies.
Lindsay Rand is a Stanton pre-doctoral fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Ülgen is a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, nuclear policy, cyberpolicy, and transatlantic relations.
Tristan Volpe is a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and assistant professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School.
Fumihiko Yoshida is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Tong Zhao is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program.
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