Nuclear Policy

 
 

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  • Proliferation Analysis
    Space-Based Missile Defense: Not So Heavenly
    Theresa Hitchens July 24, 2003 Washington, D.C.

    The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency (MDA) recently admitted that it was pushing back plans to put up a space-based missile defense test bed to at least 2008. But that does not mean the agency has given up on developing orbiting interceptors for shooting down enemy missiles in their boost-phase, shortly after their launch.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    North Korea's Intelligence
    July 22, 2003 BBC

    How much confidence can anyone have about intelligence estimates regarding North Korea's nuclear program, in light of the row over Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction? Unfortunately, the answer is not good. North Korea is widely considered by intelligence officers as the hardest target to crack in terms of reliable information, and there are political pressures at work within the Bush administration that raise the spectre that intelligence may also be used selectively to advance certain policy positions.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    The Iranian Uranium Question
    July 18, 2003

    Reports indicate that samples taken by international inspectors in Iran reveal the presence of enriched uranium. If true, this could be the first hard evidence that Iran has purified uranium outside of safeguards and in violation of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Article III of the NPT requires the full application of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards over all nuclear activities within a member country. Iran recently disclosed that it has been building a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and claims it plans to place the facility under safeguards. The United States and others maintain that the plant is intended for the production of uranium for use in nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    The Intelligence Bell Curve
    July 17, 2003

    Over the past five years, the intelligence assessments and official warnings on Iraq's weapons capability followed a bell curve. From 1998 to 2001, they expressed a fairly low-level of concern about Iraqi programs. They rose dramatically in 2002, however, peaking in warnings about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program in 2003 at the start of the war, and then declined in the weeks and months after the war to lowered expectations about the size of the arsenals and fairly low-level concern about the use or transfer of these weapons or capabilities.

     
  • Event
    Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Emergent Threats in an Evolving Security Environment
    Rose Gottemoeller July 16, 2003

    Launch of an important new book, Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Emerging Threats in an Evolving Security Environment, featuring presentations by the book’s editor, Alistair Millar, and several of its contributing authors, including Joshua Handler, Timothy Hoyt, and Robert Nelson.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    And the Winner Is…..
    July 11, 2003

    After three months of United Nations inspections in Iraq by several hundred UN experts and three months of exhaustive searches by thousands of US, British and Australian soldiers and experts, the UN inspections now look much better than critics at the time claimed. This may have important implications for future inspection efforts. The intrusive inspections approach, while not as coercive as some wanted nor as forceful as the UN Security Council was prepared to go in the weeks before the war, now appears to have been working well in Iraq.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Follow the Threat Assessments
    July 3, 2003

    Senior administration officials say they based their escalating warnings of the imminent danger posed by Iraqi weapons on official intelligence assessments. In many cases, the statements went far beyond the classified estimates now available. In other cases, such as Secretary Powell's presentation to the United Nations, they tracked closely with the CIA reports to Congress. These reports themselves, however, underwent a dramatic transformation from 2001 to 2002 after reporting essentially the same data for many years. There is little new evidence in the reports to account for this change. So what triggered the new, alarmist tone in 2002?

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Understanding the IAEA Report on Iran
    June 19, 2003

    The heat is on for Iran to clarify its nuclear ambitions. On June 19, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called on Tehran to stop plans to begin enriching uranium and to allow "all access deemed necessary" to clarify questions over Iran's nuclear program. But the Board stopped short of declaring Iran in violation of its treaty obligations, nor did it refer the matter to the UN Security Council, as some U.S. officials had urged.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Stop Hunting Iraqi Scientists and Start Recruiting Them
    Jon Wolfsthal June 18, 2003 Washington, DC

    Regardless of whether Saddam Hussein had actual chemical or biological weapons, it is known with absolute certainty that Iraq had a large and well-trained cadre of scientists and technicians capable of producing such arms.

     
  • Event
    North Korea at the Crossroads: Prospects for a Comprehensive Settlement

    The ongoing crisis in North Korea encompasses many complex issues, including: weapons of mass destruction, proliferation, security, humanitarian, and long-term development. Some observers believe that the only solution to the problem at hand is a staged approach, while others argue for a comprehensive one.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    The DIA on Iraq's Chemical Weapons Program
    June 13, 2003

    On June 7, 2003, the Defense Department released an unclassified excerpt of a 2002 Defense Intelligence Agency study on Iraq's chemical warfare program in which it stated that there is "no reliable information on whether Iraq is producing and stockpiling chemical weapons, or where Iraq has -- or will -- establish its chemical warfare agent production facilities." Significantly, the DIA study also implied that UN inspections could stop Iraq from restarting any chemical weapons program, when the analysts concluded, "...we believe Iraq ...can reconstitute a chemical warfare program in the absence of an international inspection regime."

     
  • Op-Ed
    Wooing Iran Away From the Axis of Evil
    George Perkovich June 12, 2003 Washington, D.C.

    The United States is currently pushing the International Atomic Energy Agency to press charges against Iran for technical violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. But the answer to this nuclear challenge is in Iraq, not Vienna. Post-war, Iran's leaders are nervous enough to look for accommodations with Washington.

     
  • Paper
    Verifying North Korean Nuclear Disarmament: A Technical Analysis
    June 11, 2003 Carnegie
     
  • Op-Ed
    Neutralize Nuclear Subs
    Rose Gottemoeller May 28, 2003 The Moscow Times

    Most of Russia's aging nuclear submarines still have their nuclear fuel and nuclear waste on board, and many are tied up at docks that are at best lightly guarded. These submarines contain the raw materials for nuclear terrorism and need to be urgently dismantled and disposed of in an environmentally sound manner.

     
  • Event
    Beyond the Nuclear Shadow: A Phased Approach for Improving Nuclear Security
    May 23, 2003 Carnegie

    David Mosher and Lowell Schwartz of the RAND Corporation discuss the findings of their new report on U.S.-Russian relations and nuclear security.

     
  • Event
    U.S.-Russian Strategic Partnership in the Run-Up to the St. Petersburg Summit
    May 21, 2003 Carnegie

    A seminar with Vadim Razumovsky, Yuri Fedorov, and Andrei Zagorsky of the Institute for Applied International Research (IAIR).

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Spring Thaw in South Asia
    May 20, 2003

    Even as snow continues to fall in the Himalayan passes of Kashmir, there is an unexpected spring thaw in relations between South Asia's nuclear rivals. On May 18, Indian soldiers released by Pakistan after two years of imprisonment returned to their families. The emotional scenes illustrated renewed hopes for the region as confidence-building steps continued in South Asia. New Delhi and Islamabad are exchanging ambassadors and resuming travel links. In his latest visit to the region, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said he was "cautiously optimistic" that Prime Minister Vajpayee's diplomatic opening "could possibly lead to a step-by-step process that would eventually resolve all issues."

     
  • Testimony
    Testimony: WMD Threat Reduction—How Far Have We Come? Where Are We Heading?
    Jon Wolfsthal May 14, 2003 Carnegie

    Cooperative threat reduction in Russia today needs to be addressed on three platforms: what has been accomplished so far and why it is not enough; prospects for the G-8; and what needs to be done to speed up progress.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    SORT of a Treaty
    May 14, 2003

    The Russian Duma ratified the Strategic Offensive ReductionsTreaty (SORT) on May 14, which calls for both the U.S. and Russia to reduce their alert strategic nuclear weapons to between 1,700-2,200 over the next ten years. The move follows the U.S. Senate's March approval of the pact and clears the way for the U.S. and Russian presidents to mark the entry into force of this agreement at their upcoming summit in St. Petersburg. While the adoption of the agreement is a political victory for both presidents, it is not clear that the treaty makes a major improvement in the security of either country or for the world as a whole.

     
  • Event
    Hearing: WMD Threat Reduction: How Far Have We Come- Where Are We Heading?
    Jon Wolfsthal May 14, 2003 Carnegie

    May 14, 2003

     
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Carnegie Experts on Nuclear Policy

  • James M. Acton
    Jessica T. Mathews Chair
    Co-director
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Fiona Cunningham
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Fiona Cunningham is a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in 2020-21.

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  • Toby Dalton
    Co-director and Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Dalton is the co-director and a senior fellow of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order.

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  • Rose Gottemoeller
    Nonresident Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Rose Gottemoeller is a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. She also serves as the Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

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  • Mark Hibbs
    Nonresident Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Hibbs is a Germany-based nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. His areas of expertise are nuclear verification and safeguards, multilateral nuclear trade policy, international nuclear cooperation, and nonproliferation arrangements.

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  • Togzhan Kassenova
    Nonresident Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Kassenova is a nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.

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  • Ulrich Kühn
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Ulrich Kühn is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the head of the arms control and emerging technologies program at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.

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  • Jamie Kwong
    Stanton Pre-Doctoral Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Jamie Kwong is the Stanton pre-doctoral fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Ariel (Eli) Levite
    Nonresident Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program
    Cyber Policy Initiative

    Levite was the principal deputy director general for policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission from 2002 to 2007.

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  • Thomas MacDonald
    Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Thomas MacDonald is a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Vipin Narang
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Vipin Narang is a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Ankit Panda
    Stanton Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • George Perkovich
    Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair
    Vice President for Studies

    Perkovich works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues; cyberconflict; and new approaches to international public-private management of strategic technologies.

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  • Sinan Ülgen
    Visiting Scholar
    Carnegie Europe

    Ülgen is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, nuclear policy, cyberpolicy, and transatlantic relations.

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  • Tristan Volpe
    Nonresident Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Tristan Volpe is a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and assistant professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School.

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  • Fumihiko Yoshida
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Fumihiko Yoshida is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Tong Zhao
    Senior Fellow
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    Tong Zhao is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program.

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