Nuclear Policy

 
 

All

  • Proliferation Analysis
    Missile Obsession Distorted Threat Priorities
    Joseph Cirincione April 6, 2004

    In the two months before September 11, five cabinet members, including National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice, traveled to Moscow. They were not there to coordinate counter-terrorism operations or share threat assessments. They were fixated on one mission: convince the Russian leadership to scuttle the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

     
  • Op-Ed
    US Elections and Global Security
    Jon Wolfsthal April 1, 2004 Washington, D.C.
     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    A Tale of Two Intelligence Estimates
    March 31, 2004

    The failure to find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq is frequently portrayed as the result of either intelligence failures or misrepresentation of the intelligence by others. In fact, both were involved. It appears that a third factor was involved as well: misrepresentation of intelligence by the intelligence community itself. One week before lawmakers were to vote on the use of force in Iraq, the CIA released an unclassified version of its just-completed National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). As the intelligence community's definitive judgments on key issues, NIEs are always important documents on which great care is expended. However, this NIE was unusually important because it was the authoritative assessment of the Iraqi threat available to members of Congress on which to base a decision whether to support or oppose a war.

     
  • Testimony
    The Bush Administration and Nonproliferation: A New Strategy Emerges
    Joseph Cirincione March 30, 2004 House International Relations Committee Hearing

    The proliferation of unconventional weapons is the most serious national security threat the United States faces today. While chemical weapons can kill hundreds of people and biological weapons can potentially kill thousands, nuclear weapons are incomparably dangerous in scale of destruction and strategic impact.

     
  • Op-Ed
    The Key Proliferation Questions
    Jon Wolfsthal March 23, 2004 Brussels

    The historic events in Libya, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran and North Korea have raised several key questions that help frame the proliferation debate over the future direction of U.S. non-proliferation policy.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    One Year Later: It Wasn't Us
    March 18, 2004

    The Bush administration, in the face of increasing criticism that it misled the public and Congress about the threat posed by Iraq's weapon programs and the ease of the occupation, last week began a broad defense of the decision to go to war in Iraq. Below we present key excerpts and commentary on the administration's major points. They are: 1) the war was a continuation of Clinton policy; 2) everyone thought Saddam had illicit weapons; 3) officials just repeated what the intelligence agencies told them; 4) they never said the threat was imminent; and 5) they never asserted an operational link between Al Qaeda and Iraq.

     
  • Testimony
    WMD and the United Nations
    Jessica Tuchman Mathews March 10, 2004 بيروت

    This is an extraordinarily important moment for the United Nations. Before attention is lost in the controversies over the war itself and in the challenges of its aftermath, the United Nations must capture, clarify and publicize the record of international inspections in Iraq: for itself, for member governments and for the public.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Tenet: On the Record
    March 10, 2004

    The testimony of Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet before the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 9 adds valuable insight into four key intelligence controversies: the role of DOD Undersecretary Douglas Feith's special intelligence unit, and allegations of an Iraq-Al Qaeda connection, mobile bio-weapon labs, and Iraqi efforts to procure uranium. In order to avoid future intelligence failures on the scale of September 11 and the war in Iraq, the independent commission to investigate Iraqi intelligence - or another of the several intelligence inquiries that currently exist - must make a deeper probe into these misrepresentations and mistakes. We present excerpts and analysis of Tenet's testimony below.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Proliferation: Priorities, Not Intelligence, Problem
    Jon Wolfsthal March 4, 2004 Washington, D.C.

    The pace of developments in nuclear proliferation over the past 18 months is unprecedented, and it is hard for even dedicated experts to keep track and make sense of all the latest developments. Yet with all the developments, from Libya to Pakistan to North Korea, several questions have emerged to form the core debate over the future direction of U.S. nonproliferation policy.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Great Distance but Great Impact: Pakistani and Libyan Development Affect North Korea Nuclear Issue
    Jon Wolfsthal February 26, 2004 Carnegie

    Recent events in Pakistan and Libya are directly affecting the Bush Administration's approach to North Korea's nuclear program. The disclosure of A.Q. Khan's elaborate efforts to uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons technology and the decision by Col. Khadaffi to abandon his WMD programs have reinforced the Bush administration's perception that their tough approach is paying dividends.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    The French Were Right
    February 24, 2004

    In a February 23 speech, President Bush asserted what has become a common defense of his decision to go to war with Iraq. All nations saw the danger, he said, but only he had the courage to act. It is true that many nations believed that Iraq likely retained some undeclared chemical or biological weapons. But few thought the danger so grave and immediate as to require war over containment and intrusive inspections. In the UN Security Council, France was the most outspoken opponent of the rush to war. For their opposition, the French were ridiculed and reviled by many Americans, with the Congressional leadership going so far as to remove "French" from the fries and toast on Capitol Hill menus. One year later, rereading the French position, even the most ardent Franco-hater should admit they owe France an apology.

     
  • Op-Ed
    The World Just Got Safer. Give Diplomacy the Credit
    Joseph Cirincione February 21, 2004 Beirut

    In the past few weeks we have witnessed remarkable changes in some of the most difficult and dangerous global nuclear proliferation threats. Rather than heading toward military conflicts, the United States seems to be moving toward negotiated solutions that could end the nascent nuclear weapons programs in Iran, Libya and possibly also North Korea.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Bush's New Plan to Stop Proliferation
    Joseph Cirincione February 20, 2004 Carnegie

    Like an investor watching his returns plummet, President Bush is rebalancing his proliferation portfolio. The huge cost of the Iraq war and his sinking poll ratings seem to have convinced the president that he has invested too heavily in military operations and unilateral initiatives and that it is time to move some political capital to international organizations and cooperative ventures.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Peace Process in South Asia
    February 19, 2004

    On Wednesday, February 18, senior foreign ministry officials from India and Pakistan concluded their first round of renewed talks amidst a remarkable spirit of bonhomie: India's Prime Minister Vajpayee and Pakistan's President Musharraf are getting along, transportation links have been re-established, cross-border terrorism in Kashmir has diminished significantly, and, arguably most important to the people, the Indian cricket team will soon play in Pakistan after a thirteen-year hiatus. The process is genuinely amicable. Genuine peace will be the hard part.

     
  • Op-Ed
    Inspectors Had the Real WMD Clues
    Jessica Tuchman Mathews February 12, 2004 Carnegie

    So far, efforts to unravel why both British and American intelligence were so wrong about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction have ignored one crucial fact: while governments on both sides of the Atlantic were getting the picture wrong, United Nations inspectors were getting it largely right.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    The President's Proliferation Initiative
    February 11, 2004

    President Bush’s February 11, 2004 speech on non-proliferation was a step in the right direction in pursuing a stronger, more effective and more international nonproliferation policy. Many of the initiatives, if implemented, will increase the ability of the United States and the international community to stem the spread of nuclear weapons. It remains to be seen, however, if the President’s strong words will lead to greater funding for and greater international cooperation by the United States on critical non-proliferation efforts.

     
  • Event
    Examination of Global Proliferation Strategy

    12:15 – 2:00 p.m. David Kay, Joseph Cirincione, Rose Gottemoeller, and Robert Litwak to speak at Carnegie

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Powell Proved Deception, But Not Imminent Threat
    February 3, 2004

    On the one year anniversary of secretary of State Colin Powell's presentation to the UN Security Council, we are re-posting Project Director Joseph Cirincione's analysis of the secretary's remarks at that time.

    (Originally posted February 5, 2003) Secretary of State Colin Powell calmly detailed before the United Nations Security Council US evidence of Iraq's failure to comply fully with UN disarmament orders. While the secretary focused on Iraqi deception, most nations remained fixed on the threat. They did not hear any new evidence that the danger from Iraq was urgent or severe enough to justify the extreme step of authorizing an invasion and occupation of an Arab state.Within the Arab world, the editorial opinion of the Jordan Times was typical: the speech "did not amount to convincing evidence…that Iraq presents any real or imminent danger." The Times argues that the US charges "can only be answered by allowing the UN inspectors the time, resources and support neede to carry out their mandate."

     
  • Op-Ed
    Truth or Dare
    George Perkovich February 2, 2004 Washington, D.C.

    In early January, my Carnegie Endowment colleagues and I released a report detailing systemic flaws in U.S. intelligence and decision-making regarding weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq.

     
  • Proliferation Analysis
    Intelligence on Iraq Part II: Rising Alarm
    January 31, 2004

    Beginning in mid-2002, however, the official statements of the threat shifted dramatically towards greater alarm regarding certainty of the threat and greater certainty as to the evidence. This shift does not appear to have been supported by new, concrete evidence from intelligence community reports-at least those now publicly available. These statements were picked up and amplified by congressional leaders, major media and some experts.

     
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Carnegie Experts on Nuclear Policy

  • James M. Acton
    Jessica T. Mathews Chair
    Co-director
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews Chair and is co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Fiona Cunningham
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Fiona Cunningham is a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow in 2020-21.

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  • Toby Dalton
    Co-director and Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Dalton is the co-director and a senior fellow of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment. An expert on nonproliferation and nuclear energy, his work addresses regional security challenges and the evolution of the global nuclear order.

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  • Rose Gottemoeller
    Nonresident Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Rose Gottemoeller is a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. She also serves as the Frank E. and Arthur W. Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution.

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  • Mark Hibbs
    Nonresident Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Hibbs is a Germany-based nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program. His areas of expertise are nuclear verification and safeguards, multilateral nuclear trade policy, international nuclear cooperation, and nonproliferation arrangements.

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  • Togzhan Kassenova
    Nonresident Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Kassenova is a nonresident fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment.

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  • Ulrich Kühn
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Ulrich Kühn is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the head of the arms control and emerging technologies program at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.

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  • Jamie Kwong
    Stanton Pre-Doctoral Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Jamie Kwong is the Stanton pre-doctoral fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Ariel (Eli) Levite
    Nonresident Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program
    Cyber Policy Initiative

    Levite was the principal deputy director general for policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission from 2002 to 2007.

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  • Thomas MacDonald
    Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Thomas MacDonald is a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Vipin Narang
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Vipin Narang is a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Ankit Panda
    Stanton Senior Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • George Perkovich
    Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair
    Vice President for Studies

    Perkovich works primarily on nuclear strategy and nonproliferation issues; cyberconflict; and new approaches to international public-private management of strategic technologies.

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  • Sinan Ülgen
    Visiting Scholar
    Carnegie Europe

    Ülgen is a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on Turkish foreign policy, nuclear policy, cyberpolicy, and transatlantic relations.

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  • Tristan Volpe
    Nonresident Fellow
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Tristan Volpe is a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and assistant professor of defense analysis at the Naval Postgraduate School.

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  • Fumihiko Yoshida
    Nonresident Scholar
    Nuclear Policy Program

    Fumihiko Yoshida is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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  • Tong Zhao
    Senior Fellow
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    Tong Zhao is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Nuclear Policy Program.

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