Secretary of State Madeline Albright’s upcoming visit to North Korea is the latest in an avalanche of diplomatic initiatives promising a more secure future in the Koreas and East Asia. Successful talks would vindicate the Clinton Administration’s approach to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.
On Wednesday, October 18, Russia reiterated its call to press forward with START III (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), and limit American and Russian deployed strategic warheads to 1,500 each. Moscow also reaffirmed its position that any nuclear cuts would depend on the "preservation and strengthening of the immutability" of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Russia said that U.S. deployment of a national missile defense would lead to the "destruction" of the ABM Treaty, adding that Moscow "has not held and will not hold negotiations on the 'adaptation' of the ABM Treaty."
Remarks made by Joseph Cirincione at an Arms Control Association Press Briefing
Presentation at the National Press Club by Carnegie Senior Associate Joseph Cirincione
The drive to deploy a National Missile Defense System in the United States is not driven primarily by threats or technology, but by politics. It is motivated primarily by deeply-held conservative political and strategic views on the nature of international conflict.
In the wake of President Clinton's decision to delay deployment of a national missile defense (NMD) system, missile defense advocates are crying foul. They insist that the technology is here today. They claim a Clinton conspiracy is depriving the nation of effective defense.
Russia is the one exception to U.S. success in dissuading nuclear cooperation with Iran - success, which includes China and Ukraine, according to Assistant Secretary of State for Non-proliferation, Robert Einhorn. In testimony before a U.S Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on October 5, he blamed Moscow's "lack of determination" in failing to stop Iran's procurement of nuclear materials in Russia.
As a result of budget constraints, Russia's Strategic Missile Forces are having problems procuring new missiles, Defense News reports.
Carnegie Non-Proliferation Conference
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to India has underscored Moscow's willingness to continue its nuclear cooperation with New Delhi, while strengthening Indo-Russian defense ties. Mr Putin's unprecedented visit to the center of India's nuclear weaponization program -- Bhabha Atomic Research Center - was perceived "like a blessing from the top for Indo-Russian nuclear ties." The two countries also signed a memorandum of understanding expanding cooperation in peaceful nuclear energy. Details were not forthcoming, but The Hindu quoted sources saying the memorandum "is a Russian commitment to contribute to India's growing nuclear energy requirements."
A recently announced U.S. arms deal with Taiwan immediately prompted an angry response from Beijing, which warned that there would be "serious consequences" if the deal is approved.
Pakistan reportedly has begun full-scale production of the Shaheen I, a 600 km-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile, successfully tested in April 1999. On September 21, the Pakistani daily The News quoted an unnamed government official saying, "mass production of Shaheen, which can hit Indian strategic points like Mumbai [formerly known as Bombay] and others with 100% accuracy, has started.
The difficulties facing U.S.’ leadership in nonproliferation efforts are due in large part to the fierce partisan divide that characterizes recent American politics. However, the historical record and declared positions of President Bush indicate that he may be willing and able to implement sweeping arms reductions and advance arms control measures more effectively than the Clinton administration.
A year and a half after hysterical congressional and media charges of nuclear espionage, Dr. Wen Ho Lee will go home a free man. For over a year, stories in The New York Times and the investigation of the congressional committee chaired by Rep. Christopher Cox claimed that Dr. Lee had seriously compromised US national security. Both pummeled the Administration for failing to take the allegations seriously and make arrests. Both relied heavily on the now discredited testimony of former Energy Department intelligence official Notra Trulock. The New York Times on Monday says many now believe Trulock "improperly focused the investigation…on Dr. Lee…out of a racist view that Dr. Lee was more inclined to spy for China because of his ancestry."
Moderator: Joseph Cirincione, Director, Non-Proliferation Project
India's Prime Minister, Atal Behari
Vajpayee arrives in Washington on September 13, amidst international fears
that South Asia remains a nuclear tinderbox. According to the outgoing
Indian Chief of Army Staff, "the chances of war are much more than they
were …five years ago."
Indian Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee reaffirmed that "subject to its supreme national interests" India "will continue its voluntary moratorium until the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) comes into effect." The joint statement with President Clinton also reiterated that the Indian government would "continue efforts" to create a national consensus on the CTBT, in order to bring the discussions "to a successful conclusion." India also stated its commitment "not to block entry into force of the Treaty." The statement echoed the Prime Minister's assertion in a speech to a joint session of Congress on September 14, that India did not wish to "unravel" Washington's non-proliferation efforts. Mr. Vajpayee has attempted to shift Washington's focus on dangers emanating from South Asia, from non-proliferation to terrorism.
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