Presentations by Andrew Kuchins, Director, Russian-Eurasian Program, Robert Nurick, Director, Carnegie Moscow Center, Anatol Lieven, Martha Brill Olcott, and Rose Gottemoeller, Senior Associates.
The American public remains deeply skeptical of missile defenses. ABC News reports in a recent poll that "most Americans support the concept in principle, but that support dissipates dramatically in the face of counter-arguments on the price, workability and ramifications of the project."
Presenter: P.R. Chari, Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
In Geneva, negotiations have stalled on a verification mechanism for the treaty banning biological weapons. Talks are deadlocked over both the draft text and negotiation procedures. Jenni Rissanen, an analyst at the Acronym Institute, analyzes current obstacles facing the Biological Weapons Convention.
Project Director Joseph Cirincione outlines the three possible outcomes of the new strategic nuclear review ordered by President Bush and describes the conflicts that will shape whatever policy emerges. If done right, the review could help the president implement sweeping arms reductions and negotiate new agreements more effectively than President Clinton.
Bush administration efforts to promote a new national missile defense (NMD) plan have met with skepticism, hostility and uncertainty abroad. The Non-Proliferation Project has gathered recent quotes from the governments and leaders that will determine the outcome of the international debate on NMD. For further resources, visit the Project's resource page on missile defenses.
Alexander Pikayev spoke on the George Bush administration, the ABM Treaty and NATO expansion.
Press reports that Iraq has rebuilt chemical and biological weapons plants bombed by the United States in late 1998 present newly-inaugurated President George W. Bush with a serious non-proliferation challenge. A New York Times report that Iraq has rebuilt chemical and biological weapons-capable plants at Falluja demonstrates the continued threat posed to regional stability by Saddam Hussein.
On Wednesday, January 17, India conducted a successful test of the 2000 km-range Agni II nuclear-capable ballistic missile. The test demonstrates that India's nuclear weaponization program continues to progress, albeit in slow-motion. According to Indian officials, this was Agni II's first test in "its final operational configuration," and the mission's objectives were met "satisfactorily." With only two successful tests nearly two years apart, Agni II is still not ready to deploy, although it is a step closer.
Ted Turner and former Senator Sam Nunn announced on 8 January the establishment of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a private foundation committed to reducing the risks posed by nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. The organization will focus on easing the "pressure on the nuclear trigger" and actively promoting the "trust, transparency and security that are preconditions to the fulfillment of the Nonproliferation Treaty's goals and ambitions," Nunn said.
Colin Powell endorsed it. The Joint Chiefs endorsed it. Now, three former secretaries of defense have urged the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, with periodic reviews. In an op-ed published in the New York Times on 7 January 2001, authors Harold Brown, Melvin R. Laird and William J. Perry endorse a bipartisan approach to nuclear nonproliferation as one of the principle goals of the new Congress.
Italy has urged NATO to investigate the deaths of six Italian solders who died of leukemia after serving in the Balkans. Prime Minister Giuliano Amato believes they may have died from contact with depleted uranium munitions used by NATO forces. There are many ways to die in combat; but exposure to depleted uranium is probably not one of them.
On December 20, Pakistan announced a partial withdrawal from the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, responding to India's extension of a cease-fire against Kashmiri militants. India's Prime Minister Vajpayee cited "encouraging developments" in announcing the decision to extend the cease-fire beyond the original December 28 deadline to January 26, 2001. The latest developments suggest that the Indian cease-fire against the militants and Pakistan's commitment to exercise "maximum restraint" along the LoC have succeeded in creating a new dynamic in the region.
Go slow on defenses, negotiate any deployments, and devalue nuclear weapons. That was the message Secretary of State-designate Colin Powell sent at his December 16 press conference. For those who have pushed to abrogate the ABM Treaty and for a crash program to deploy national missile defenses, it was not welcome news.
Roundtable with officials from the Foreign Ministry of France and outside experts
China is slowly modernizing its strategic nuclear forces. There is no evidence to suggest either an acceleration of the program or any near-term threat to the United States. Chinese doctrine is centered around the maintenance of a "limited nuclear deterrent" capable of launching a retaliatory strike after an adversary's nuclear attack. The design and deployment of China's nuclear forces have been shaped by two key concerns: the survival of a second strike capability and the potential deployment of missile defense systems.
Enter your email address in the field below to receive the latest Proliferation News in your inbox!
You are leaving the website for the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy and entering a website for another of Carnegie's global centers.
你将离开清华—卡内基中心网站,进入卡内基其他全球中心的网站。