Artyom Shraibman

Nonresident Scholar
Carnegie Moscow Center
Artyom Shraibman is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center.


LLB, International Law, Belarusian State University (2014)
MSc, Politics and Communication, London School of Economics (2018)


Belarusian; English; Russian


Artyom Shraibman is a political analyst based in Minsk. He focuses on Belarus-related developments, including domestic politics and foreign policy. He is also the founder of Sense Analytics, a political consultancy. 

Shraibman is the former political editor of the TUT.BY website, the most popular non-state media outlet in Belarus and writes frequently for TUT.BY on Belarusian politics.

He has been a regular contributor to since 2016.

Shraibman has also worked as a senior political advisor to the United Nations in Minsk and as an intern at the German Bundestag, where he assisted the team of MP Oliver Kaczmarek.

Shraibman has an MSc in politics and communication from the London School of Economics and an international law degree from Belarusian State University in Minsk.

  • Op-Ed The Moscow Times January 3, 2022
    Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans For 2022

    What does Russia hope to achieve in 2022? The Moscow Times asked 10 leading experts in Russian foreign policy to give their predictions for the coming year.

  • Commentary December 8, 2021 Русский
    Why Lukashenko Has Recognized Crimea as Russian Territory

    Lukashenko will have to provide Moscow with constant reminders of his loyalty, and following his recognition of Crimea, there are few options left for further rhetorical and symbolic concessions.

  • Неуловимый мститель. Как далеко зайдет конфликт Минска с западными соседями Commentary August 12, 2021 Русский
    Minsk Is Teetering on the Brink of a Dangerous Escalation

    Not so long ago, Minsk scored foreign policy points by positioning itself as a force for regional stability; a counterbalance to an aggressive Russia. Today, Moscow’s unwillingness to get embroiled in conflicts with NATO at the whim of its ally could be the only factor exercising any restraint on Lukashenko.

  • Commentary July 9, 2021 Русский
    Will Tough New Sanctions Change the Course of Events in Belarus?

    If Moscow and the West manage to de-escalate their confrontation, Lukashenko’s main currency—his demonstrative anti-Western stance—will be devalued in the eyes of the Kremlin.

  • Commentary June 4, 2021
    Podcast: Where Will the Crackdown in Belarus End?

    “Repression is spreading like gas in a room: as long as there’s space there, it’s going to expand.” What do the latest developments in Belarus mean for the country’s future?

  • Безвоздушное пространство. Как Лукашенко продает Москве разрыв с Западом Commentary May 27, 2021 Русский
    Going Global: Forced Landing Makes Lukashenko an International Problem

    Russia is the only country that can truly influence the behavior of the Belarusian regime, so it’s only a matter of time before Western pressure is transferred from Minsk to Moscow.

  • Отрезать пути деэскалации. К чему приведет разгром главного белорусского СМИ Commentary May 21, 2021 Русский
    Belarusian Media Onslaught Leaves Lukashenko With No Way Out

    The Belarusian regime has backed itself into a corner, and is now scared to ease up the pressure, fearing that if angry people are given more freedom, there could be a repetition of last August’s sweeping protests.

  • Commentary February 16, 2021 Русский
    Is Lukashenko Really Ready to Reform Belarus?

    Moscow faces the question of how to respond to procrastination over reform in Belarus. On the one hand, it might seem that the crisis there has passed, leaving no leverage over Lukashenko. On the other hand, he is going to need more money.

  • Атрибут диктатуры. Что будет с симпатиями белорусов к России после протестов Commentary December 16, 2020 Русский
    Why Belarusians Are Turning Against Russia

    Russia’s association with Lukashenko’s crackdown may persuade Belarusians that it is impossible to be a pro-Russian democrat: that one can only be one or the other. Support for authoritarianism is going out of fashion in Belarus; pro-Russianness may, too.

  • Commentary November 17, 2020 Русский
    Lukashenko’s Vicious Circle

    In the event of a managed transition of power in the next year or so, it’s military men who will supervise that transition and help to select a successor—who looks increasingly likely to be one of them.

  • Human Security in Europe’s Eastern Neighborhood
    September 22, 2020 Live Online
    Human Security in Europe’s Eastern Neighborhood

    The coronavirus pandemic has revived demands for a human-centric approach to security. In Europe’s east, this means strengthening healthcare systems and building more resilient societies while managing threats such as geopolitical rivalries, conflicts in areas of limited statehood, and cyber warfare.


Areas of Expertise

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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